South Africa vs England - Betting Tips - 16 Nov 2024

As England and South Africa prepare for their 47th test match meeting, the mood among supporters of the two camps could hardly be more contrasting. South Africa has followed back-to-back World Cup and Rugby Championship triumphs with a bold start to the Autumn Internationals last week, while English fans are frustrated by a talented team that is unable to convert golden opportunities into victories. Saturday’s match-up is an enticing prospect with plenty of betting opportunities.

Match Overview - South Africa vs England Rugby

The Springboks and the English have always been natural sporting foes, and their test match encounters always deliver anticipation, excitement and high-octane action. England have contrived to lose their first two Autumn Internationals just when victory seemed assured. The pressure is rising, and the arrival of the bullish World Cup holders is not going to help, not least because they warmed up in style by trampling over the Scottish 32-15 last week.

When and where does the match take place?

Kick-off is 19:40 (SAST) on Saturday, 16th November, at the Allianz Stadium in Twickenham, London.

South Africa vs England Key Players to Watch

There is absolutely no doubt that the South African pack has been the hot topic of conversation in the Northern Hemisphere this week. ‘The Bomb Squad’ - seven substitutes in the forwards who replaced the starters minutes into the second half - demolished the Scottish pack and now have the English in the crosshairs, even though coach Rassie Erasmus has gone for a conventional five forwards on the sub bench for this game. Welsh journalist Stephen Jones has called the tactic “arrogant”, but SA couldn’t care less, and nor should they - centre Andre Esterhuizen even stirred the pot by saying they are aiming to have “the two best teams in the world”. 

While the Springbok forwards have been the focus of media attention this week it is the English fly halves who have been under the microscope. The starting number 10, Marcus Smith, has impressed everyone with his creativity and purpose this autumn - indeed, it finally seems as if the 25-year-old has come of age. But coach Steve Borthwick’s habit of replacing him with veteran George Ford late in the game has been widely panned by ex-players and roundly booed by the Twickenham crowd.

South Africa vs England Rugby Head-to-Head

Historically, the Springboks have always had the edge over the English. They have won 28 of the 46 test matches the two have played and 22 of the 37 played since South Africa was re-admitted to international sport in the 1990s. In England, and more recently, the count has been tighter. In 24 tests in England the home team has won 11 and the Springboks 12 with one draw. The tally is 6-4 in the visitor’s favour in the last 10 encounters and 3-3 in the last six matches at this week’s venue, the Allianz Stadium, Twickenham.

England vs South Africa Key Stats

• The two teams are closely matched at crossing the gain line in the highest proportion of their carries - England does it 64.3% of the time and South Africa 64.2%.

• Both teams are also similar when it comes to retaining possession from their kicks in play - South Africa leads Tier 1 nations at 22%, with England second at 16%.

• South Africa have scored 19 tries in their last five matches and England have scored 10 in their most recent five.

• South Africa has scored the first try in four of their last five matches, and England just once in their last five.

• South Africa has scored the first points of the match three times in their last five matches and England just twice in their last five.

• South Africa has won the race to 10 points in four of their last five games, and England has won it just once in their five.

England vs South Africa Rugby Betting Odds

The Springboks are hot favourites to win, with Betway SA offering 1.35. They price England 3.3 and the draw 26.0. 

On the handicap, the compiler has England 1.9 to win with a +8.5 point start and South Africa 1.85 to cover that deficit. 

Those confident of a Springbok triumph could look to the winning margin: a 1-7 point win is 3.50, 8-14 is also 3.50 and 15+ is 2.60. Four of the visitors' last six wins over England fell into the 1-7 margin.

South Africa vs England Betting Tips

South Africa to win by 1-7 points at 3.83 with Supabets SA

Of the last six matches at Twickenham, England has won two by one point, and South Africa has won one by one point and another by three points. In the last 10 matches between the two, six results had three points or less in the result. England thrashed Japan in the summer, but the other 13 of their last 14 matches were very tight indeed - all had just nine points in it. 12 had just seven points between the two teams. England is under enormous pressure while the Springboks can prey on that stress. History supports this bet.

England/South Africa HT/FT Double at 4.70 with Supabets

Given England’s capacity to keep a game tight yet make a mess of it at 80 minutes, allied to the extra strength in depth of the Springbok bench, a half-time/full-time flip-flop has great appeal. England will be fired up by the crowd and their own expectations - and they have injected pace into the backs with four changes from last week. But the visitors are unlikely to ever see the white shirts disappear into the distance on the scoreboard and can grind out a result aided by English nerves as the clock ticks down.

Ollie Sleightholme to score the first try at 17.0 with Supabets

Here’s something to consider: with the expected multiple changes to the Springbok pack be very wary of backing one of them to score an anytime try without giving a lot of thought to whether they will be replaced early. We’ll take young winger Ollie Sleightholme to make an impression for England. The Northampton Saint scored eight tries in 14 England age group games and has 19 in just 29 Premiership matches. He is fast and looked dangerous last week when crossing the line twice in defeat against Australia. An aggressive England will be looking to utilise his speed early in the game.

Pros and Cons of Betting on South Africa vs England Rugby

Pros:

• Recent data supports the idea that these are two well-matched teams

• Shrewd bettors can dig deep and find angles 

• There is a wealth of exciting betting markets with competitive odds

• Be sure to use all bookmakers so you get the best price available

• The weather forecast should not impact the playing conditions

Cons:

• England are having to deal with media, ex-player and fan pressure

• Will they change tactics as a consequence?

• The visitors need to beware of being hyped by the media this week

• Do not be hasty - international rugby is a great betting sport, but mistakes are easy

FAQs about South Africa vs England Rugby Betting

When and where does the match take place?

Kick-off is 19:40 (SAST) on Saturday, 16th November, at the Allianz Stadium in Twickenham, London.

What factors should I consider when betting on South Africa vs England?

The weather is not expected to be a factor, so focus on historical data, but be sure to consider matches played recently, matches played at Twickenham and the different pressures on the two coaches.

How can I place a bet on South Africa vs England rugby?

Visit any bookmaker, find ‘Rugby Union’ in the list of sports and it will lead you to all matches. Be sure to click ‘All Bets’ to see the full range of options. Do not focus on the match result alone.

FAQs about South Africa vs England Rugby Betting

What factors should I consider when betting on South Africa vs England?

The weather is not expected to be a factor, so focus on historical data, but be sure to consider matches played recently, matches played at Twickenham and the different pressures on the two coaches.

How can I place a bet on South Africa vs England rugby?

Visit any bookmaker, find ‘Rugby Union’ in the list of sports and it will lead you to all matches. Be sure to click ‘All Bets’ to see the full range of options. Do not focus on the match result alone.